07/06/2020

FRA Cargo Climate Index Week 26

NEWS

Week 26 (June 22th to Juni 28th 2020)                  

(Compared to previous week: →)

Actual Traffic Figures

week 25

week 26 Δ % y-t-y
Cargo (Freight & Mail in t) 33.889 34.591 () - 17,8%
Passengers 161.482 172.671 (↗) - 89,3%
Aircraft Movements 2.333 2.365 () - 78,3%

At around 2%, there was a slight increase in cargo volume compared with the previous week (). After the peak of approx. 37,000 t in mid-May due to the import of personal protective equipment (PPE), the cargo volume has been moving sideways fairly constantly over the last few weeks (). The proportion of imports to exports has shifted, so that the current ratio of approx. 51% import () to approx. 49% export () is getting closer and closer to the pre-Corona ratio. The current export share has reached the highest value in 10 weeks ().

The cargo volume is divided between the modes of transport as follows: 80% freighter (), 10% belly cargo () and 10% () cargo-only passenger flights. The freighter segment is showing a stable sideways movement in terms of both movements and cargo volume (). The approximately 450 weekly freighter movements are currently 10% above the figures of 2019 figures (). With the increase in passenger flights (), the number of cargo-only passenger flights is decreasing weekly (). The cargo volume shifts almost 1:1 between the two modes of transport. Compared to the peak in mid-May, the number of cargo-only passenger movements has decreased by 60% and is now less than 200 movements per week ().

Classification of the current situation by the cargo stakeholders interviewed

Asked for the current cargo volume the stakeholders interviewed confirm the stable sideways movement: both import and export volumes are increasingly developing "as expected" (). While one third of the responses classify the import volumes as "less than expected", the export volumes show a more positive picture. Here, one third of the respondents classify the volume as "above expectations". Both for imports and exports, the availability of capacity is stable: over 80% of respondents cited a balanced relationship between supply and demand ().

The development of import volumes shows a mixed picture: only 60% of the respondents classify the development as "constant" (). The remainder is divided roughly equally between the categories "above expectations" and "lower than expected".  As far as export is concerned, the experts are unanimous: 90% expect the volume of exports to remain unchanged in the next few days.

Although operations/handling has largely returned to normal, personal protective equipment continues to be highlighted as a product group. The emergence of automotive parts is increasingly being mentioned as a positive development (). The trend of increasing satisfaction with handling performance () has continued in all dimensions. Furthermore, none of the respondents was dissatisfied with any of the performance categories surveyed.

Important topics for the cargo stakeholders interviewed, current & future

The feedback given by the experts reflects a general uncertainty about the future development of cargo volumes overall and in FRA. The assessment of the situation was particularly influenced by the exacerbated developments surrounding the decision on Lufthansa's future. With the resurgence of passenger air traffic at many locations, the question is whether FRA can continue to assert itself as a strong cargo location.

Note on own account:

Due to the positive feedback we have decided to continue the Cargo Climate Index. However, in view of the declining momentum of the situation, we will switch to a monthly reporting rhythm for the time being.

Issued by: FRA Cargo Team as of: July 3rd 2020
Cargo & Logistics Infrastructure Development, ZFL, Fraport AG

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